As I've noted before, I see a lot of froth in the oil market; and probably in other commodities too. The reason I think this is happening is because traders are beginning to treat commodities futures as assets.

In reality, a future is simply a bet on which way you think the price is going to go. So if I work at Goldman Sachs and I have a billion-dollar position in oil; then I release a press statement that says "Gee, I think oil is going to double," everyone else is going to say "Holy shit, that Goldman Sachs guy must know what he's talking about, so I'm going to fall in line behind his position." And voila, oil prices begin to edge upwards. In this example, supply and demand of actual oil has not effected price. This is what we call a bubble. If you bought a home in 2007 and you're trying to sell it now, you're painfully familiar with this idea, I'm sure.

The story of supply and demand is that it hasn't really changed much over the last three years, yet price has tripled. The real bad news is that Congress is on the job, and they're trying to enlist the help of the FTC and a commodities regulation body to help reign in the traders. I don't like the idea of meddling with the free market, but the situation begs the question: Is this really a free market if the price of a good is decoupled from demand for said good? Either way, with demand plateauing (or declining, if you look at recent numbers); I would expect some volatility in the oil markets in coming quarters. When the price run-up has made it into the forefront of everyone's mind; it's time to sell your position and wait for the bottom.

So The Wife and I have lived in our new neighborhood for about six months now, and we're really glad we chose to buy here. And no, we didn't get an ARM or finance more than we can afford or anything like that; so you won't be paying our mortgage with your tax dollars anytime soon. One of the reasons we like it so much is because we live on a cul-de-sac, and we've made some really good friends with all the neighbors.

Anyways, so I'm walking out of the garage yesterday evening and B, the guy who lives across the street, waves me over. "Come on around back, M and E are over with the baby. We're just sitting on the porch." So I head over and he says, "Just give us a holler when you're about to come through the gate. M's dogs are over, and we'll have to hold them so they don't make a break for it." I hadn't yet met M's wife E, or the new baby; so I figured what the hey.

So I pause at the gate, get the go ahead, and walk through. Now, I'm carrying a beer and a folding chair, so my hands are fairly full. As I close the gate, they open the screen door on the porch, and the dogs come out as I go in. Of course, the dogs are excited because dogs generally get all excited around new people, and they're barking and jumping as we pass eachother. I hold out a palm to them as I'm walking through the screen door, and amidst the canine social niceties I get a solid bite on the ass.

Now, I've never been bitten by a dog, so I'm like. "Son of a ... (they had their kid with them, so I held back the urge to scream BLOODY MOTHERFUCKING BASTARD)! Your dog just bit my butt dude!" I put my chair down, and B's wife L is a nurse, so she's like "Go in the bathroom and have a look to make sure you're not bleeding." M grabs the dog that bit me and chastises him, while the little dog is still running around yelping and shit. I go off to the bathroom to survey the damage to one of humanity's Great Flawless Asses.

Thankfully there were no puncture wounds, but it did leave a raspberry about the size of a silver dollar. Almost as if I'd scraped it in a fall or something. So I go back outside, and of course M, E, B, and L are all as shocked as I am. The dog doesn't have a history of biting, and it's shots are all up to date and what not. So there we are, making awkward conversation and pretending that what just happened was neither hilarious nor painful. I slammed my beer as fast as possible just so I'd have an excuse to get the hell out of there.

I got home and called The Wife, who'd just left for her shift. Now, she's a nurse to; and as soon as I made the mistake of telling her about it, she got all hypochondriac on me. Generally, I dislike going to the doctor. However, I have discovered that for the sake of my marriage (and my own health) it is best to just take my medicine. I ended up going to the local urgent care last night for a tetanus booster and some advice on how to prevent infection. I also had a weird moment with the doc, when he asked me how the hell I got bit on the ass by a dog. The way he said it implied that he thought I was running around the dog park in a banana hammock, trying to lay with the beasts of the field or something. Anyways, he said soak in a bath for a while, wash it with some antibacterial soap, and keep an eye on it.

When I returned from the urgent care, I had a voicemail from M. He said he'd heard I went to have it looked at, and wanted to make sure everything was okay. Needless to say, it's kind of an awkward situation now. Firstly, I haven't been scared of a dog since I don't know when, and now I'm kind of scared of M's dog; and secondly because we don't really now each other that well. The dog didn't growl or posture in any way that made me feel like it was in an aggressive mood. I mean, I understand that animals are animals, and sometimes they bite; but now I'm all thrown off. Maybe it didn't like the color I was wearing. Maybe it was because it was held, then released as I came in; thus putting it in a defensive mindset. Hell, maybe it was just being friendly. I mean, I didn't have to pull myself away from it; the bite was more of a quick release type of nip than a chomp and hold.

I realize that some people would have probably reported the bite to animal control, but I didn't. The dog doesn't have a history, and B &L even kept the dogs for a week while M &E were away and had no problems. I mean, it would only add tension to an already awkward situation. Here I am, embarrassed that I got bit in the damn ass; but I could tell M & E were equally embarrassed that their dog acted like that. If I reported the bite, it would just give them a reason to let their embarrassment turn into resentment. I'd prefer not to have a relationship like that with neighbors, especially people who are as easy to like as M & E seem to be. I figure it'll be socially lame for a little while, but eventually it'll be a funny story.

I ain't going to be hanging around his damn dogs anytime soon though, and you can take that shit to the bank son!

So at 8:30am this morning I read some economic data that I can only describe as fascinating. It's kind of like a jungle gym for your mind. You read the report, and it's a framework that you just sit and mull over.

Okay - so the trade gap is narrowing - which means even though we're still importing more than we export, we've actually begun to import less and/or export more in the last quarter. Which is good, because that will increase our GDP.

So here we are, using less of 'other peoples stuff' to run our economy, and it's still growing. The real interesting part is this:

Imports of industrial supplies fell 3.2% to $61.6 billion, including an 8.9% drop in petroleum imports.
The average price of oil rose to a record $89.85 a barrel, but demand fell 9% to 8.97 million barrels a day.

We're using 10% less energy. Think about that. Then think about the ridiculous increase in oil prices of late. And you wonder if maybe there's an oil bubble expanding, what with Iran floating 28 million barrels of oil.

Is this an indication of some kind of 'lean' capitalism? Are consumers going from big spenders to keen shoppers? Is this the invisible hand at work here, as lean operations become a response to inflated energy prices?

It'll never happen, mainly because it would trample the liberties of billions; but my dark side is beginning to wonder if we need to require people to take a test and get licensed to surf the web.

There's a whole lot of good stuff out here, but there's an equal amount of scams, garbage, revisionism and sensationalism as well. You only have to look as far as current events to see it.

Take the 'rice shortage'. I mean, give me a break. I went into Walmart today and the shit was a buck-fifty a bag, and the shelf was full. What's stupid is that people in the US are hoarding the shit. What first world citizen fucking lives on rice anyways? If the industrialized world went without rice for a month, would it kill us? It's not like rice is irreplaceable. If it wasn't on the shelf, you could always eat hominy, grits, polenta, or risotto. Or, you know, a fucking PB&J. But no, these people hear there's a rice shortage and what do they do - they go down to the store and load up. Dude, now that I think about it, rice isn't really even a staple food for me. If I had to give it up for an extended period of time so that folks in far-flung places who do consider it a staple could eat; it would have zero effect on me. I eat so little of it now, that if it disappeared from the shelf I wouldn't even notice. It would be like Bentley going out of business or something.

Then there was the whole global warming thing. Now they're saying the globe is actually getting colder. It must be because Al Gore finally converted that horrible energy hog of a mansion he's got to something that doesn't need its own power grid. What a dickhole. But that wasn't our first response to global warming, was it kiddies? Nope, everyone lined up to punch their ticket on the Alarmist Express for a rip roarin' ride straight to the edge of sanity. There were a few people who actually began to look at the data, and the hipocrisy, and the politics of the situation and they caught a lot of flack for going against the grain.

Seriously, before anyone should be allowed to purchase a modem or sign up with an ISP, they should have to show some kind of license that proves they've taken an internet safety class. You know, one that would explain how shit gets out of hand, and that just because the internet is the fastest way to spread the word, doesn't mean that the word is neccesarily worth a damn.

Jesus people. Get your shit together, pull your head out of your ass and behave like rational human beings! Now go out there and make me proud!

The Wife had to work tonight, so we set the DVR to record Hell's Kitchen for her. For some reason, the damn thing wouldn't record. It's a cable company-supported peice, and they recently upgraded the software on it and ever since it's been a little wonky. Anyways, I decided to take notes for her, and write up the episode so she wouldn't miss anything.

I present it to you here in the style of a video game walkthrough. If you're not familiar with the genre, you're a geriatric or a Luddite, or both.

Now, what follows may not be funny if you've never seen the show. I'm also willing to take the risk that it may not be funny regardless; but I don't care.